The large pro-European blocs – popular, social democratic and liberal – reaffirmed their majority in the European Parliament in this Sunday’s elections (10), although with fewer seats than the polls indicated and than they had in the previous term, while the right demarcated its space throughout Europe.
The latest update of still provisional electoral data released this Monday (10) shows that the major European political parties won 402 of the 720 seats that make up the European Parliament, confirming a growth trend for the more conservative wing.
The figures published by the European Parliament at 10:30 am (local time, 5:30 am Brasília) indicate that the European People’s Party (EPP) would have obtained 185 seats, while the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) would be the second group, with 137 seats. The liberals, in turn, would get 80 representatives.
Compared to the situation in the European Parliament before the elections, the EPP would gain nine more seats, while the Social Democrats would lose two representatives. The liberals, in turn, would be left with 22 fewer MEPs.
The Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) now appears with 73 seats, and Identity and Democracy, with 58. They are the most right-wing groups on the political spectrum in the European Parliament scenario, and expect national parties with similar ideas, but which do not yet have a European political “family”, enter into negotiations to join their ranks in the coming weeks.
Composition of the European Parliament
In total, seven groups make up the current legislature of the European Parliament. These segments can start negotiating agreements as early as this Monday and require a minimum of 23 deputies from seven member countries. They may remain or disappear, and new parties may be added or lost.
The new configuration of Parliament with the rise of the right is still unknown. Groups may attempt to unite into a single alliance to coordinate efforts, increase their influence, and gain access to more resources and funding.
The composition of the groups may also change throughout the legislature, but the blocs that will be in force in the first plenary session will be able to use their weight in seats to obtain, for example, vice-presidencies of the institution.
The European Union held elections to renew the 720 seats in its Parliament until this Sunday. Each country holds local elections, where citizens vote for national parties. Once elected, these parliamentarians join one of the seven groups in the European Union.
Groups are segmented as follows:
- European People’s Party (center-right): currently with 176 MEPs, it is considered the majority group in Parliament, having a solid base of German, Polish and Romanian members. He made alliances with socialists and liberals in the last legislature and defended climate and immigration issues in Europe;
- Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (center-left): 2nd largest group in the current European Parliament, with 139 seats. It has strong representation from Spanish socialists, led by Pedro Sánchez and defends social justice, equity and the fight against unemployment;
- Renew Europe (center-right): currently the 3rd largest group in the European Parliament, with 103 parliamentarians. It is led by French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party and defends, among other things, social agendas, economic growth and sustainability;
- Greens Group: 4th largest force in Parliament, has 72 seats. The group emerged strengthened in the last 2019 elections supported by the climate cause and the massive protests around the world.
- European Reformists and Conservatives (right): 5th largest group in Parliament, with 70 deputies from 15 EU countries. The Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, is the big figure of the bloc, which foresees an increase in the number of elected officials;
- Identity and Democracy (right): currently has 49 seats and is the 5th largest group in the European Parliament. This group has deputies from nine countries, most of them from the Italian party Coolof National Rassemblement (France) and the AfD (Germany). Among the focuses of the alliance are the creation of jobs and growth in the country, increasing security and combating illegal immigration;:
- European United Left (left): focused on labor rights, economic and social justice, the group currently has 35 deputies;
Growth of the right associated with the political situation of member countries
The conservatives and nationalists were the big winners in this Sunday’s elections, in a reflection of the growth trends they have experienced in several member countries in recent years, such as Italy, and as a barometer of what is to come in the next national elections, such as in This is the case of France and Germany, two countries with great political influence.
Emmanuel Macron, French president, announced an unexpected and risky act of dissolving the National Assembly shortly after the first results were released.
This is because the opposition National Reunion party, led by candidate Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, obtained around 31.5% of the votes, more than double the number won by the president’s Renaissance party, showing a growth of the right in the country.
The measure taken by Macron comes amid a significant loss of internal support in the last two years of his second presidential term: the president has already lost his majority in the French parliament and, despite the elections to Parliament not directly influencing French politics, he serves as a “thermometer” of what is happening in the country.
Therefore, the president decided to test the popular support of his Renaissance party and allies in new parliamentary elections scheduled for June 30th and July 7th.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s social democratic SPD party also suffered a heavy defeat in the European Parliament, just over a year before the country’s general elections, placing just behind the right-wing AfD party, which took advantage popular discontent with the government and became the second largest winning political force.
The party with the most votes was the Christian Democrat CDU, owned by former Chancellor Angela Merkel and currently the largest opposition to the government, with 30.3% of the votes and 29 seats out of the 96 that Germany has in the European Parliament.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 15 seats, gaining six compared to the last European election, in 2019, and 15.6% of the vote. The SPD was left with 14 seats – six fewer than in 2019 – and 15.1% of the votes.
This loss of seats for Scholz’s alliance, formed by the SPD, the Greens and the Liberal Party, represents a setback of almost 30% compared to the 2019 European elections and represents a risk for the current German government, which could leave the power in the next elections.
Powers of the European Parliament
The European Parliament, considered the legislative body of the European Union, has specific functions within the bloc, being responsible for legislative, budgetary and supervisory issues.
Among its responsibilities are the adoption of legislation, together with the EU Council, based on proposals from the European Commission; the decision on international agreements; and analysis of the Commission’s work program, inviting it to propose legislation.
Another power is to elect the president of the European Commission, an important position in the bloc that is currently held by German Ursula von der Leyen, who is seeking re-election.
Von der Leyen said this Monday (10) that she has “the door open” for new pacts in order to obtain a new mandate, after having approached socialists and liberals to recreate a majority in the European Parliament.
He made these statements together with the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, Frederich Merz, when asked about a possible refusal to work in the next legislature with the national conservative party Brothers of Italy, the party of Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni.
The German Christian Democrat politician stated, however, that in the re-election process for the Presidency of the Commission, “we do not speak with national parties, but with groups in the European Parliament”.
“After a first step, others may follow, but now all of this is in the hands of the working groups, with the heads of government and state and with the parliamentary group of the Popular Party”, he added.
Meloni’s party, about which Von der Leyen was questioned, was a member of the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a group to the right of the EPP. The provisional results give the EPP, which includes the Christian Democrats, 185 of the 720 seats in the European Parliament.
New scenario in Parliament brings impacts to Brazil
The renewal of the European Parliament, with the rise of the right, brings some indirect impacts to Brazil, especially when it comes to agribusiness.
This is because it is the representatives of the legislative body who choose who will assume the presidency of the European Commission, the executive body responsible for defending the general interests of the EU, through the presentation of legislative proposals and the implementation of EU legislation, policies and the budget.
It also acts as the voice of all the bloc’s countries in international fora, particularly in the areas of trade policy and humanitarian aid.
Historically, the EU has shown itself to be protectionist in the agriculture sector, encouraging local producers. However, the bloc is under pressure from political forces to make changes in this direction, aiming to reduce subsidies provided to farmers, to encourage trade opening.
With the growth of the right, this intention could grow, which would benefit Brazil. On the other hand, a more conservative portion increasingly advocates that trade agreements take place within the bloc, reducing the possibility of agreements in the area with the Brazilian government.
Another point to be analyzed in relation to Brazil is the regulation of the free trade agreement studied between the EU and Mercosur.
For political analysts, although the European Parliament does not have enough strength to decide on the treaty – all member countries must approve accession – the bloc must keep negotiations at a standstill.
The fact that the Brazilian government, led by Lula da Silva, does not have any ideological alignment with this growing force in the European Parliament reinforces the argument that the Mercosur-EU agreement should not come to fruition any time soon.
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