The Union is under a lot of pressure: The SPD manages to come on an equal footing in a current survey. Scholz is also much more popular than Laschet.
Berlin – there are still five weeks until the general election – and according to surveys, the race for the strongest force is really tight. A “blink of an eye finale”, as it is often heard from the CSU. And a new survey, carried out by Insa, confirms that: Union and SPD are tied this week (August 22nd).
Federal election 2021: Union and SPD on par – Greens lose
The polling institute has for the Picture on sunday values determined again. The result: Union 22 percent, SPD 22 percent. For the first time since April 2017, the two parties are back in line with this Sunday trend. What is soaring for the SPD is a disaster for the Union. Because loud image the 22 percent for CDU and CSU (minus three percentage points on the previous week) is the lowest value that Insa has ever measured for the Union. The SPD, on the other hand, climbed another two percentage points compared to the previous week.
Even the Greens cannot look forward to their polls at the moment. At Insa, the party around Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock loses another percentage point, so that 17 percent are currently reported. Of course, it is important to note that a lot can still change before election day on September 26th. Polls are just snapshots. But it is also a fact: the postal vote has begun.
Video: Laschet loses approval
The FDP can increase again and now comes to 13 percent (plus one percentage point). After several weeks of stagnation, the AfD also manages this increase and is now twelve percent. The Left Party remains at seven percent. (Will the Chancellor race be exciting again? Our new Politics newsletter always contains all the news about the federal election.)
Who will rule after the federal election? Survey only leaves room for three-way alliances
Should the election result turn out like this, only three-party coalitions would once again be possible. The values would be enough for a new attempt for “Jamaica” (Union, Greens, FDP), a “traffic light” (SPD, Greens, FDP), a “Kenya coalition” (Union, SPD, Greens) or a “Germany Alliance “(Union, SPD, FDP). Anyone who appoints the chancellor in a coalition in which the Union and the SPD are represented in the event of a tie will likely depend on the exact number of votes and the agreements within the possible alliance. At the end of the day, the members of the Bundestag elect the Chancellor, who can unite a majority.
When it comes to the question of who should become Chancellor, Olaf Scholz (SPD) is still clearly ahead of the game – and can even go one step further. With five percentage points more, it is now 34 percent. Far behind, Baerbock can maintain its value of 13 percent. It is once again bitter for Armin Laschet (CDU), who falls into third place with three percentage points less and thus 12 percent.
Scholz hurries away from Baerbock and Laschet – the survey rollercoaster continues
Much is volatile in this federal election, as this poll rollercoaster shows every week. Unlike other institutes, Allensbach published values of 27.5 percent for the Union and 19.5 percent for the SPD on Thursday.
In any case, CSU boss Markus Söder had already got to the point on Saturday at an election campaign event of the Union: Of course there is also a tie, but then a team does not stop. “Let’s fight confidently, we are who, we are the Union,” said Söder. But the CSU values in Bavaria are currently also looking bad.
Notes on this survey
The polling institute Insa has for the Sunday question for the Picture on sunday 1352 people were interviewed from August 16 to 20. The maximum margin of error is plus / minus 2.8 percentage points. On August 20, an additional 1002 people were asked to be directly elected for chancellor.
Also read: “Dear Armin” – double U-turn in the Union: Merkel and Söder as Laschet’s campaign engines