According to the latest forecasts from Saxony-Anhalt, the scope for government alliances remains very limited. But there are more options than there were five years ago.
- On June 6th, starting at 6 p.m., the first forecasts for the result of the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt will be available.
- The preliminary surveys already showed possible changes in the government.
- This ticker is continuously updated.
Magdeburg – For a long time it was uncertain whether there was even an alternative to the ruling black-red-green coalition in Saxony-Anhalt. In the meantime, the forecasts make it clear that the CDU can probably govern not only with the SPD and the Greens, but also with the FDP. But that doesn’t make the situation any more comfortable for Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff (CDU). Five years ago, it was essentially simple mathematics that led to the current government alliance. All other coalitions were completely unthinkable. The polls for the state elections in 2021 suggest that Saxony-Anhalt will have more difficult exploratory talks this time. What is possible in the state will hardly meet the wishes of the parties with a view to the federal election.
Current forecasts on election day: Numbers for the 2021 state election in Saxony-Anhalt
On June 6th, we will keep you up to date in the live ticker on how the forecasts from Saxony-Anhalt will develop on the evening of the election. At 6 p.m., the first figures from election researchers will be available. In the following, they are continuously supplemented by the finished vote counts, which results in continuously more precise projections.
Starting position before the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt in 2021: The last polls
|Research group elections||06/03/2021||30%||23%||11.5%||10%||9%||6.5%||10%|
|Research group elections||06/28/2021||29%||23%||11%||10%||9%||8th %||10%|
|Infratest dimap||05/27/2021||28%||24%||10%||11%||9%||8th %||10%|
|State election 2016||03/13/2016||29.8%||24.3%||16.3%||10.6%||5.2%||4.9%||9%|
Forecasts show mathematically possible coalitions – but many of them are excluded
In 2016 it was clear that the CDU only had two coalition partners. The left and the AfD were excluded in principle. The FDP had just missed entry into the state parliament. With the SPD and the Greens, it was enough for a majority, although the AfD won 24.3 percent and Die Linke 16.3 percent of the vote.
As the forecasts for the state election in 2021 show, the situation in Saxony-Anhalt will be less easy this time. The FDP will probably clear the five percent hurdle and should therefore be an attractive coalition partner for the CDU. The question is whether the SPD and the Greens will play along in the year of the federal election. Both parties have clearly turned to the left with their demands in the election campaign. In the meantime, the conservative wing with representatives such as Friedrich Merz is making a clearer appearance in the CDU. It only seems certain that the CDU will still not be able to form coalitions with the AfD and the left. Even for a left majority without the CDU, it will not be enough from the start.
In terms of federal politics, Saxony-Anhalt is of great importance. No further state elections will take place until the day of the federal election. Most recently, the CDU had to admit defeat in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. The Greens and the SPD were each able to secure a clear victory. For the Union and its Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, an election victory would be an important signal – ideally with a clear distance to the AfD, which was not always present in current forecasts.
Survey shock for the CDU shortly before the state election in 2021
The polls only revealed a greater threat to the CDU shortly before the state elections. For the first time, the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt passed the CDU in a representative survey in the middle of the super election year. From the Union’s point of view, such a result would be a disaster. Reiner Haseloff relies on clear demarcation in this situation: “With me there will be no consequences in any way towards the right or towards the left.”
The top candidates held back with clear coalition statements before the weekend. What is really possible remained uncertain before election day. Haseloff will not be able to get past the SPD or the Greens to keep his office. And the forecasts for the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt in 2021 show something else very precisely: the state is almost certainly heading for a coalition of three parties. (rm)