2 days before the 2nd round, Lula’s advantage varies from 0.4 to 8 points

Two days before the elections, the advantage of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) over Jair Bolsonaro (PL) varies from 0.4 pp, in Paraná Pesquisas, to 8 pp, in the survey by Ipec (ex-Ibope). The 2nd round is held on October 30th.

In the IPEC poll, carried out from October 22 to 24, 2022, former President Lula has 54% of the valid votes against 46% for the current Chief Executive. The survey by Paraná Pesquisas, carried out from October 20 to 24, 2022, indicates the PT with 50.2%, while Bolsonaro appears with 49.8%.

The search PowerDate, held from October 23 to 25, shows the former president leading the race with 53% of the valid votes in the presidential succession. Bolsonaro has 47%. The same numbers were recorded by the latest surveys Datafolha, Ipespe and Quaest.

O PowerDate has the highest frequency in the current electoral cycle. It had been held every 15 days since 2021. In 2022, since the end of August, it became weekly.

“This is very important because in this way we have a consistent curve of results, which allows us to visualize eventual distortions that sometimes occur in any survey. The important thing is the trajectory of the curve and not an isolated result. And the historical series of PowerDate is the most complete among all surveys of voting intentions in Brazil”, says the political scientist Rodolfo Costa Pinto31 years old, coordinator of the PowerDate.

To understand how the search is carried out PowerDate, Click here.

O Power 360 compiled the latest polls registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). Studies with reliable methodologies were considered, from which it was possible to verify the origin of the information, with full texts available.

RESEARCH REGISTRATION

The surveys mentioned in this report are registered with the Electoral Court. The following list identifies the surveys and data from their methodologies: company, interviews, margin of error, confidence interval, date and registration in the TSE:

• ipec: 3008, 2 pp, 95%, 22 to 24 Oct.2022, BR-06043/2022;
• MDA/CNT: 2002, 2.2 PP, 14 to 16.Oct.2022, BR-05514/2022;
• Great/Quaest: 2,000, 2 pp, 95%, Oct 23 to 25, 2022, BR-00470/2022;
• Ipespe: 1,100, 3 pp, 95.5%, 22 and 24.Oct.2022, BR-08044/2022;
• Datasheet: 4,580, 2 pp, 95%, Oct 25 to 27, 2022, BR-04208/2022;
• Atlas: 7.500, 1 pp, 95%, 21 to 25.Oct.2022, BR-01560/2022;
• Paraná Research: 2020, 2.2 pp, 95%, Oct 20 to 24, 2022, BR-00525/2022;
• PowerDate: 5,000, 1.5 pp, 95%, Oct. 23 to 25, 2022, BR-01159/2022.

DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS

This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.

It is important to say that all the surveys are correct, each one within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation you want to determine.

In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. Telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).

It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.

In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.

In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign, it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.

RESEARCH COMPANIES

Several research companies in Brazil call themselves “institutes”, which can give the idea that they are philanthropic entities or linked to some educational institution. In reality, they are all private for-profit companies. What differentiates them, in some cases, is the portfolio of clients they have and the rules for accepting certain contracts.

O PowerDatefor example, only conducts research for the private sector (including studies commissioned by the digital newspaper Power 360) and does not accept contracts from government agencies, politicians, candidates or parties.

Datafolha calls itself “Institute” and is a commercial company of the group that owns Folha de S.Paulo, UOL and the bank PagBank. He does not work for political parties or politicians, but accepts to carry out research for government agencies.

O ipec (Intelligence and Research in Consulting) is formed by executives from the former Ibope (which closed activities in January 2021). It is a commercial company that, like Ibope, maintained several contracts with the Globo Group, with their research being publicized on the broadcaster’s television news. Ipec has no restrictions on accepting contracts with governments, parties or politicians. The command is from the statistician Márcia Cavallari, who made a career at Ibope and is now the CEO of Ipec.

The other research companies have no restrictions on working for parties, politicians or governments.

RESEARCH AGGREGATOR

O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.

The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Search Aggregator clicking here.

Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.