In the hope and hope that all readers of our international politics space have had happy holidays and a peaceful New Year, we start the year 2022 with the usual survey of the main elections that await us. It’s the fourth year we’ve started together and, as always, we’re going to geographically divide the elections. First, let’s go to the European elections, highlighting five of them.
Portugal
On January 30, the Portuguese are going to the polls to elect a new parliament and, probably, a new government coalition. As we mentioned two months ago, when the parliament was dissolved, what is at stake in Portugal is the future of “Geringonça”, the left-wing alliance that governed the country, formed between the Socialist Social Democratic Party, the Portuguese Communist Party and the Left Block.
Of the 230 seats in the Assembly, Geringonça had 137, a comfortable majority. Can the new election keep the Gizmo? Yes, but that is not the wish of the Socialist Party, which owns 108 seats. The party hopes to obtain an absolute majority, without the need for alliances. In the field of conservatives, the two main right-wing parties want to “nationalize” the gains in the last municipal elections.
According to recent polls, the PS would remain the largest party and possibly have a simple majority. On the other hand, the same polls indicate a drop in votes from other leftist parties. In other words, if the PS does not get its majority, it would have fewer allies available for a new “Gergonça”, with the risk of Portugal seeing a parliament blocked, emulating the last years of neighboring Spain.
Serbia
On April 3 it is the Serbs’ turn to go to the polls. For the second time this year, in fact, as the country will hold a referendum on the next 16th. The Serbian parliament has already approved a reform of the national judiciary, and the reform would need to be approved by popular vote. In general terms, the reform seeks to adapt the Serbian judiciary to the parameters of the European Union, as part of the country’s claim to be a member of the EU.
The opinion on the referendum follows ideological lines. The more central and liberal parties defend the reform and defend the idea of integrating the EU. The parties on the radical left and the nationalist right are against the reform, for different reasons. The polls, however, point to a calm victory for the conservative government, both in the referendum and in the general elections in April. If a turnaround occurs in the coming weeks and the government loses in the referendum, it will certainly turn on a yellow light for the election in April.
France
April is also the turn of the French to vote to define their president. If neither wins a majority, the second round will be played on April 24, and finally, on June 12, the French will choose the occupants of the 577 seats of the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Congress. Everything indicates that Macron is guaranteed in the second round of the presidential election, what is in dispute is who will run against him.
It will likely be a name from the French right. On December 4th, the party Os Republicanos, the main acronym of the French centre-right, consecrated Valérie Pécresse as a candidate in the presidential election, ousting Éric Ciotti and, mainly, Xavier Bertrand, who came to emerge as the main name of the party. Today she is ranked second in the polls.
Even so, in a virtual “technical tie” with Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, both more to the right than Pécresse and representatives of nationalist voters, with anti-immigration guidelines and critics of the European Union. The French role in European integration will feature prominently in the campaign, as Macron will “replace” Merkel as the European leader, both de facto and de jure, as France assumes the bloc’s rotating presidency.
In the second round, the scenario will be tight, with the voter moved by rejection. The left and the center will vote for Macron, to be an “anti” vote, and the same thing for the candidacy of the right. In that sense, Macron would certainly prefer to face someone more extreme like Le Pen or Zemmour. Pécresse may attract part of Macron’s own electorate, in addition to having a party with great capillarity behind its candidacy, less personal than the other three.
Sweden
In September the Swedes go to the polls to decide whether to keep Magdalena Andersson as prime minister. The former finance minister succeeded Stefan Lofven as leader of the Social Democratic Party in November and consequently became the Scandinavian country’s first female prime minister. Now, she is looking to keep her position and also become the first woman elected as Prime Minister.
When Löfven announced his retirement from public life, he presented, among other reasons, that the new leadership would then have nearly a year in government to “show service” and win the trust of the electorate, which he would not have. Today, polls indicate that the Social Democrats would remain the largest party in parliament, but with a smaller caucus than the current one. The Swedish vote in September will then be a kind of referendum on the little less than a year of interim government by Magdalena Andersson.
Hungary
With no specific date yet, the next Hungarian election will certainly attract a lot of attention, inside and outside Europe. On one side, Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz–KDNP coalition. On the other side, Peter Márki-Zay and all the rest of the Hungarian parties. We have already explained here before the size of the anti-government alliance, which required primary elections, in two rounds, to decide who would be named on the ballot boxes in dispute against Orbán.
The Hungarian election will be played in April or May and will certainly be present in our space at other times. The election will be sold in the European media as a plea for “the future of the European soul”. Under Orbán, who controls his party and party resources with a clenched fist, Hungary has plummeted in terms of freedom of speech, press and academics, and the separation between the three powers has narrowed. All of this is the target of criticism from the European Union.
On the other side is a conservative candidacy, but, unlike Orbán, based on a broad partisan and Europeanist front. The government has already adopted the rhetoric that its opponent would be a “puppet” of Brussels or George Soros. And the surveys? Practically a technical tie, and the result of the election will certainly be decided by voter turnout. The greater the turnout, the worse for Orbán, who will have his loyal constituency under any circumstances, but until then, a lot of water will flow.
In the next column, we will see the outstanding claims for 2022 in Africa, Asia and Oceania.
#elections #eye #Europe #Filipe #Figueiredo